Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Sean Sullivan
Colorado Rockies · San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 8.87 · WHIP 2.01 · K 14% · 5 starts
SEAN SULLIVAN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
SEAN
SULLIVAN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam50%88 mph
Sweeper19%76 mph
Changeup16%77 mph
Cutter12%83 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
8.87
WHIP
2.01
K%
14%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 15% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .258 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 29% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
8.87
ERA
2.01
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
14% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 29% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 5 starts
0 of 5 starts over
Last 5: 8.87 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
93°
Wind
5 21°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+21%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.