Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Shane Baz
Baltimore Orioles · Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.21 · WHIP 1.26 · K 21% · 11 starts
SHANE BAZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
SHANE
BAZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Knuckle-Curve33%85 mph
4-Seam33%96 mph
Cutter17%89 mph
Sinker11%95 mph
Changeup7%87 mph
Matchup
VS KC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.21
WHIP
1.26
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .342 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 5% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.4
K/GM
5.9
IP/GM
4.25
ERA
1.35
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
5% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.25 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs KC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
9 104°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.