Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Shane Baz
Baltimore Orioles · Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.57 · WHIP 1.30 · K 22% · 11 starts
SHANE BAZ
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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SHANE
BAZ
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam38%96 mph
Knuckle-Curve31%86 mph
Changeup11%88 mph
Sinker11%96 mph
Cutter9%90 mph
Matchup
VS OAK LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.57
WHIP
1.30
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .322 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.6
K/GM
5.7
IP/GM
4.71
ERA
1.26
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.71 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs OAK—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
+3%
2B
+5%
3B
0%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
4 244°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:11 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.