Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Shane McClanahan
Tampa Bay Rays · San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.57 · WHIP 1.11 · K 20% · 11 starts
SHANE MCCLANAHAN
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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SHANE
MCCLANAHAN
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam44%96 mph
Changeup22%86 mph
Curveball20%82 mph
Slider13%88 mph
Matchup
VS SD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.57
WHIP
1.11
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .367 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 58% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.6
K/GM
4.4
IP/GM
3.27
ERA
0.91
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 58% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.27 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SD—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:04 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.