Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Shota Imanaga
Chicago Cubs · Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.64 · WHIP 1.27 · K 21% · 11 starts
SHOTA IMANAGA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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SHOTA
IMANAGA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam45%92 mph
Splitter27%83 mph
Sweeper16%81 mph
Matchup
VS CIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.64
WHIP
1.27
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 29% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 15.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 38% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .315 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 20% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
5.4
IP/GM
3.33
ERA
1.30
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 20% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.33 ERA · 22% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
4 338°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-15%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.