Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Sonny Gray
Boston Red Sox · Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.67 · WHIP 1.16 · K 23% · 11 starts
SONNY GRAY
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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SONNY
GRAY
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker23%92 mph
Sweeper23%85 mph
Curveball18%80 mph
4-Seam17%91 mph
Cutter16%88 mph
Changeup5%86 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.67
WHIP
1.16
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .316 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.0
K/GM
6.0
IP/GM
2.40
ERA
1.20
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.40 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:00 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.