Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Sonny Gray
Boston Red Sox · Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.13 · WHIP 1.02 · K 27% · 11 starts
SONNY GRAY
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
SONNY
GRAY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper25%85 mph
Sinker23%92 mph
Cutter19%88 mph
4-Seam17%92 mph
Curveball12%80 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.13
WHIP
1.02
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 39% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .306 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.8
K/GM
6.7
IP/GM
1.62
ERA
0.90
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.62 ERA · 27% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
9 161°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:06 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.