Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Spencer Arrighetti
Toronto Blue Jays · Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 8.19 · WHIP 1.59 · K 23% · 11 starts
SPENCER ARRIGHETTI
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
SPENCER
ARRIGHETTI
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Curveball35%77 mph
4-Seam28%92 mph
Sinker10%92 mph
Sweeper10%80 mph
Cutter9%88 mph
Changeup6%84 mph
Matchup
VS KC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
8.19
WHIP
1.59
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 29% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .437 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 22% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
3.5
IP/GM
9.35
ERA
1.96
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
22% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 9.35 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs KC—
Tonight's Park
HR
0%
Hits
-2%
2B
+9%
3B
-31%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:24 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.