Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Spencer Arrighetti
Houston Astros · Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.83 · WHIP 1.19 · K 24% · 10 starts
SPENCER ARRIGHETTI
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
SPENCER
ARRIGHETTI
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Curveball30%77 mph
4-Seam29%92 mph
Sweeper11%80 mph
Sinker9%92 mph
Cutter9%87 mph
Changeup8%84 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.83
WHIP
1.19
K%
24%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 27% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .387 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 31% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.4
K/GM
4.4
IP/GM
7.77
ERA
1.36
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
24% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 31% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 7.77 ERA · 29% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
4 249°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+11%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.