Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Spencer Miles
Toronto Blue Jays · Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · Pitcher
ERA 1.90 · WHIP 1.01 · K 25% · 10 starts

SPENCER MILES
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line

SPENCER
MILES
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker51%96 mph
Curveball26%81 mph
Slider13%88 mph
4-Seam9%97 mph
Matchup
VS CHW LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
74
projected lineup
VS
ERA
1.90
WHIP
1.01
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 12% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 4.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 24% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .286 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 5% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 35% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.6
K/GM
2.6
IP/GM
1.38
ERA
1.15
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
5% barrel · 35% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 1.38 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHW—
Tonight's Park
HR
0%
Hits
-2%
2B
+9%
3B
-31%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:56 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
