STEVEN MATZ

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

STEVEN

MATZ

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Sinker53%94 mph

Changeup31%83 mph

Matchup

VS BAL LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

71

Good

projected lineup

VS

ERA

4.11

WHIP

0.78

K%

18%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	25%	25%
SwStr%	10.2%	11%
Chase%	29%	28%
xwOBA-a	.233	.315
Barrel%-a	4%	8%
HardHit%-a	35%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

0.8

K/GM

1.3

IP/GM

0.00

ERA

0.16

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

18% season K rate

Contact Suppression

4% barrel · 35% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Neutral park

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 0.00 ERA · 17% K

1

1

2

3

1

2

1

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs BAL—

Tonight's Park

HR

-3%

Hits

-3%

2B

-11%

3B

+31%

K

+3%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

72°

Wind

0

Rain

0%

HR Adj

0%

K Adj

0%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 11:46 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.