Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Taj Bradley
Minnesota Twins · Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.09 · WHIP 1.22 · K 29% · 11 starts
TAJ BRADLEY
Over K—@ —
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K
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H
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TAJ
BRADLEY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam49%97 mph
Cutter26%90 mph
Splitter20%92 mph
Curveball5%83 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.09
WHIP
1.22
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .313 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
7.6
K/GM
6.2
IP/GM
2.32
ERA
0.94
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.32 ERA · 32% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
87°
Wind
6 255°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:10 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.