Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tanner Gordon
Colorado Rockies · Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.99 · WHIP 1.68 · K 20% · 11 starts
TANNER GORDON
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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TANNER
GORDON
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam49%93 mph
Slider29%88 mph
Changeup15%84 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
6.99
WHIP
1.68
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 20% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .418 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 15% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 48% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
4.6
IP/GM
6.26
ERA
1.74
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
15% barrel · 48% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.26 ERA · 16% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
7 247°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.