Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers · Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.12 · WHIP 0.89 · K 32% · 11 starts
TARIK SKUBAL
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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TARIK
SKUBAL
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam39%97 mph
Changeup24%88 mph
Sinker18%96 mph
Slider12%89 mph
Curveball6%81 mph
Matchup
VS BAL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.12
WHIP
0.89
K%
32%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 38% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 21.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 40% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .297 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 17% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
8.2
K/GM
6.2
IP/GM
2.03
ERA
0.90
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
32% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 17% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.03 ERA · 34% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BAL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
12 18°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+10%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 11:24 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.