Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Taylor Ward
Baltimore Orioles · Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
MG Score
51
C-
Tonight's Matchup
30
Matchup
Tough matchup
vs Connelly Early · LHP · 89.1 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
3.00
WHIP
1.10
K%
24%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
87.7
92.0
Barrel%
4.8%
5.6%
Hard Hit%
38%
44%
xwOBA
.299
.387
xSLG
.411
.536
Whiff%
17%
19%
Chase%
12%
37%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Connelly Early: 3 PA · Low sample
AB
2
AVG
.000
OPS
.333
HR
0
H
0
K
0
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
87.7
Barrel%
4.8%
Hard Hit%
38%
Sweet Spot%
33%
xwOBA
0.299
xSLG
0.411
Recent Games
Last 5
60%
3/5 games
Last 10
60%
6/10 games
Last 20
60%
12/20 games
Last 30
52%
13/25 games
AVG
.184
OBP
.326
SLG
.184
OPS
.510
HR
0
RBI
3
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Toronto Blue Jays | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Toronto Blue Jays | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 5/27 | Tampa Bay Rays | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Tampa Bay Rays | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Detroit Tigers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Detroit Tigers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Taylor Ward
Baltimore Orioles · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
89.2 mph
Avg LA
9.1°
Hard-hit %
40%
Barrel %
18%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
1Triple
0Double
4Single
23Out
72Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.