Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tim Mayza
Philadelphia Phillies · Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.00 · WHIP 1.67 · K 27% · 2 starts
TIM MAYZA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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TIM
MAYZA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker62%94 mph
Slider33%87 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.00
WHIP
1.67
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .327 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 30% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.0
K/GM
1.5
IP/GM
3.00
ERA
1.67
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 30% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 2 starts
0 of 2 starts over
Last 5: 3.00 ERA · 27% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
73°
Wind
5 13°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 8:37 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.