Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tim Mayza
Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.50 · WHIP 1.25 · K 22% · 17 starts
TIM MAYZA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
TIM
MAYZA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker53%94 mph
Slider37%88 mph
Matchup
VS NYY LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.50
WHIP
1.25
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 24% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .377 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 18% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 53% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.8
K/GM
1.1
IP/GM
0.00
ERA
0.94
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
18% barrel · 53% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 0.00 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYY—
Tonight's Park
HR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
5 222°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:11 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.