Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Tomoyuki Sugano
Colorado Rockies · Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.59 · WHIP 1.45 · K 14% · 11 starts
TOMOYUKI SUGANO
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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TOMOYUKI
SUGANO
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Splitter23%87 mph
Sinker19%93 mph
4-Seam17%93 mph
Cutter13%89 mph
Curveball11%80 mph
Sweeper10%83 mph
Slider7%86 mph
Matchup
VS ATL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
6.59
WHIP
1.45
K%
14%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .422 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 39% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
4.6
IP/GM
8.61
ERA
1.83
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
14% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 39% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 8.61 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ATL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
6 117°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:15 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.