Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tomoyuki Sugano
Colorado Rockies · San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies · Pitcher
ERA 5.98 · WHIP 1.41 · K 12% · 10 starts
TOMOYUKI SUGANO
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
TOMOYUKI
SUGANO
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam26%92 mph
Splitter19%86 mph
Sinker18%92 mph
Slider11%86 mph
Curveball9%80 mph
Sweeper8%84 mph
Cutter8%89 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.98
WHIP
1.41
K%
12%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .380 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 39% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
5.2
IP/GM
6.58
ERA
1.46
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
12% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 39% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 6.58 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
93°
Wind
5 21°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+21%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:03 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.