Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
TREVOR LARNACH
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
TREVOR
LARNACH
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Jackson Jobe · RHP
92.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
57
VS
ERA
3.93
WHIP
1.42
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.2 | 88.4 |
| Barrel% | 9% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 47% | 41% |
| xwOBA | .351 | .391 |
| xSLG | .493 | .564 |
| Whiff% | 32% | 17% |
| Chase% | 34% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.2 avg EV · 9.1% barrel · 47% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Jobe—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
89°
Wind
4 222°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:07 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game