Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Trevor Rogers
Baltimore Orioles · Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.34 · WHIP 1.13 · K 25% · 11 starts
TREVOR ROGERS
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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TREVOR
ROGERS
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam49%94 mph
Changeup20%86 mph
Sweeper14%78 mph
Sinker9%94 mph
Cutter8%84 mph
Matchup
VS STL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.34
WHIP
1.13
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .344 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.4
K/GM
5.6
IP/GM
4.82
ERA
1.14
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.82 ERA · 28% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs STL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
8 345°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 8:05 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.