Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Trevor Rogers
Baltimore Orioles · Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.93 · WHIP 1.17 · K 17% · 10 starts
TREVOR ROGERS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
TREVOR
ROGERS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam47%94 mph
Changeup22%88 mph
Sweeper13%79 mph
Cutter12%84 mph
Sinker6%94 mph
Matchup
VS CHC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.93
WHIP
1.17
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .324 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.4
K/GM
4.9
IP/GM
1.09
ERA
0.93
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 1.09 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
3 240°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+11%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:50 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.