Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Trevor Williams
Washington Nationals · Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · Pitcher
ERA 0.00 · WHIP 1.00 · K 29% · 2 starts
TREVOR WILLIAMS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
TREVOR
WILLIAMS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam38%90 mph
Sweeper32%78 mph
Matchup
VS PHI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
0.00
WHIP
1.00
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 49% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .208 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 0% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 20% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.5
K/GM
2.0
IP/GM
0.00
ERA
1.00
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
0% barrel · 20% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 2 starts
0 of 2 starts over
Last 5: 0.00 ERA · 29% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PHI—
Tonight's Park
HR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
7 146°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:19 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.