Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Trey Yesavage
Toronto Blue Jays · Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.38 · WHIP 1.12 · K 21% · 11 starts
TREY YESAVAGE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
TREY
YESAVAGE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam47%94 mph
Slider27%87 mph
Splitter26%83 mph
Matchup
VS SD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.38
WHIP
1.12
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 27% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .304 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.4
K/GM
5.5
IP/GM
3.62
ERA
0.99
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.62 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
11 257°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.