Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Troy Melton
Detroit Tigers · Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.52 · WHIP 1.04 · K 24% · 11 starts
TROY MELTON
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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TROY
MELTON
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam33%96 mph
Cutter22%92 mph
Slider15%88 mph
Changeup14%90 mph
Curveball9%79 mph
Sinker7%96 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.52
WHIP
1.04
K%
24%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 35% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .305 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
6.0
IP/GM
2.10
ERA
1.20
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
24% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.10 ERA · 16% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
11 205°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:42 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.