Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tyler Alexander
Texas Rangers · Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 0.00 · WHIP 0.75 · K 40% · 10 starts
TYLER ALEXANDER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
TYLER
ALEXANDER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Changeup30%85 mph
Sweeper24%80 mph
4-Seam19%92 mph
Cutter17%89 mph
Matchup
VS CLE LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
0.00
WHIP
0.75
K%
40%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 35% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .269 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 50% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.6
K/GM
0.9
IP/GM
0.00
ERA
0.86
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
40% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 50% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 0.00 ERA · 47% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CLE—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
91°
Wind
9 272°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+16%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:50 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.