Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tyler Holton
Detroit Tigers · Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.74 · WHIP 1.16 · K 9% · 10 starts
TYLER HOLTON
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
TYLER
HOLTON
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Cutter30%88 mph
Changeup19%84 mph
Matchup
VS OAK LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
55
VS
ERA
1.74
WHIP
1.16
K%
9%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 15% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .339 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.4
K/GM
1.1
IP/GM
1.69
ERA
1.31
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
9% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 1.69 ERA · 8% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs OAK—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
+3%
2B
+5%
3B
0%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
96°
Wind
11 193°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 11:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.