Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Tyler Phillips
Miami Marlins · Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.21 · WHIP 1.36 · K 18% · 11 starts
TYLER PHILLIPS
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
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H
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TYLER
PHILLIPS
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper26%84 mph
Sinker23%95 mph
Splitter22%87 mph
Curveball17%83 mph
4-Seam10%95 mph
Matchup
VS BOS LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.21
WHIP
1.36
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .413 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 50% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.6
K/GM
4.2
IP/GM
3.86
ERA
1.38
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 50% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.86 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BOS—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:40 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.