Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tyler Phillips
Miami Marlins · Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.00 · WHIP 1.47 · K 15% · 10 starts
TYLER PHILLIPS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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TYLER
PHILLIPS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper25%84 mph
Sinker23%95 mph
Splitter23%87 mph
Curveball16%83 mph
4-Seam11%96 mph
Matchup
VS CLE LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.00
WHIP
1.47
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .431 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 57% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.2
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
4.37
ERA
1.41
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 57% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.37 ERA · 11% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CLE—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.