Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
TYLER SODERSTROM
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
TYLER
SODERSTROM
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Mitch Keller · RHP
88.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
80
VS
ERA
8.51
WHIP
1.81
K%
17%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.0 | 94.2 |
| Barrel% | 10% | 7% |
| Hard Hit% | 41% | 53% |
| xwOBA | .342 | .521 |
| xSLG | .490 | .724 |
| Whiff% | 16% | 10% |
| Chase% | 22% | 18% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.0 avg EV · 10.3% barrel · 41% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Keller0
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
+3%
2B
+5%
3B
0%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
14 192°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+23%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:48 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game