Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Tyler Stephenson
Cincinnati Reds · Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds
MG Score
58
C
Tonight's Matchup
39
Matchup
Tough matchup
vs Noah Cameron · LHP · 85.6 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
4.00
WHIP
1.26
K%
22%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
86.2
87.0
Barrel%
12.8%
6.7%
Hard Hit%
30%
47%
xwOBA
.361
.321
xSLG
.556
.445
Whiff%
27%
19%
Chase%
27%
27%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Noah Cameron.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
86.2
Barrel%
12.8%
Hard Hit%
30%
Sweet Spot%
47%
xwOBA
0.361
xSLG
0.556
Recent Games
Last 5
60%
3/5 games
Last 10
60%
6/10 games
Last 20
55%
11/20 games
Last 30
57%
13/23 games
AVG
.235
OBP
.333
SLG
.382
OPS
.716
HR
1
RBI
5
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Kansas City Royals | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Atlanta Braves | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/27 | New York Mets | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | New York Mets | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/25 | New York Mets | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/23 | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/19 | Philadelphia Phillies | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/18 | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/17 | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Tyler Stephenson
Cincinnati Reds · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
91.0 mph
Avg LA
23.6°
Hard-hit %
47%
Barrel %
26%
Outcomes (76 balls)
Home Run
4Triple
0Double
4Single
12Out
56Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.