Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
TYLER TOLBERT
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
TYLER
TOLBERT
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
46
Grade D
Matchup
VS Germán Márquez · RHP
91.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
47
VS
ERA
5.24
WHIP
1.54
K%
15%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 80.4 | 91.3 |
| Barrel% | 9% | 14% |
| Hard Hit% | 31% | 57% |
| xwOBA | .348 | .426 |
| xSLG | .417 | .662 |
| Whiff% | 18% | 22% |
| Chase% | 25% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
80.4 avg EV · 8.6% barrel · 31% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Márquez0
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
89°
Wind
5 87°
Rain
92%
HR Adj
-8%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:25 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game