Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
VAUGHN GRISSOM
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
VAUGHN
GRISSOM
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
54
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Troy Melton · RHP
93.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
35
VS
ERA
1.82
WHIP
0.81
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.2 | 88.3 |
| Barrel% | 5% | 8% |
| Hard Hit% | 28% | 50% |
| xwOBA | .346 | .374 |
| xSLG | .454 | .489 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 29% |
| Chase% | 36% | 44% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.2 avg EV · 5.1% barrel · 28% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Melton—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
8 195°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game