Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
VLADIMIR GUERRERO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
VLADIMIR
GUERRERO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
54
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Daniel Lynch IV · LHP
89.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
65
VS
ERA
4.87
WHIP
1.28
K%
14%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.5 | 89.6 |
| Barrel% | 16% | 16% |
| Hard Hit% | 41% | 43% |
| xwOBA | .307 | .409 |
| xSLG | .429 | .632 |
| Whiff% | 9% | 16% |
| Chase% | 25% | 26% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.5 avg EV · 16.2% barrel · 41% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs IV—
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
96°
Wind
10 190°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:16 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game