Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Walbert Ureña
Los Angeles Angels · Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.75 · WHIP 1.22 · K 22% · 11 starts
WALBERT UREÑA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
WALBERT
UREÑA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker34%97 mph
Changeup31%89 mph
Sweeper19%86 mph
4-Seam16%97 mph
Matchup
VS TEX LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.75
WHIP
1.22
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .264 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 32% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.6
K/GM
5.2
IP/GM
3.81
ERA
1.23
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 32% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.81 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TEX—
Tonight's Park
HR
+15%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
-21%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.