Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Weston Wilson
Baltimore Orioles · Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
MG Score
32
F
Tonight's Matchup
13
Matchup
Avoid
vs Connelly Early · LHP · 89.1 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
3.00
WHIP
1.10
K%
24%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
84.7
92.0
Barrel%
5.6%
5.6%
Hard Hit%
33%
44%
xwOBA
.220
.387
xSLG
.299
.536
Whiff%
30%
19%
Chase%
19%
37%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Connelly Early.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
84.7
Barrel%
5.6%
Hard Hit%
33%
Sweet Spot%
33%
xwOBA
0.220
xSLG
0.299
Recent Games
Last 5
0%
0/5 games
Last 10
30%
3/10 games
Last 20
40%
8/20 games
Last 30
47%
14/30 games
AVG
.200
OBP
.273
SLG
.350
OPS
.623
HR
1
RBI
1
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/28 | Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Tampa Bay Rays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Tampa Bay Rays | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Detroit Tigers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Tampa Bay Rays | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/18 | Tampa Bay Rays | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/13 | New York Yankees | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/11 | New York Yankees | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/10 | Athletics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/9 | Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Weston Wilson
Baltimore Orioles · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
88.9 mph
Avg LA
20.4°
Hard-hit %
42%
Barrel %
16%
Outcomes (19 balls)
Home Run
0Triple
0Double
1Single
6Out
12Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/24/2026 - 5/28/2026
Games: 4
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
CPerformance Score
52Exit Velo
87.8 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
40.0%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
7.7%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.133
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
40.0%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: Sweet Spot%, Chase%
Areas for Improvement: xwOBA, Exit Velo
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
98.7 mph
Launch Angle
15.8°
xBA
0.106
xSLG
0.199
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
40.0%
Fly Ball%
40.0%
Line Drive%
20.0%
Pop Up%
N/A
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.