WILL DION

K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

WILL

DION

K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam40%91 mph

Changeup38%78 mph

Curveball16%81 mph

Matchup

VS MIA LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

96

Fantastic

projected lineup

VS

ERA

2.25

WHIP

0.80

K%

32%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	29%	25%
SwStr%	14.3%	11%
Chase%	34%	28%
xwOBA-a	.295	.315
Barrel%-a	17%	8%
HardHit%-a	36%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

3.2

K/GM

2.8

IP/GM

2.57

ERA

0.79

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

32% season K rate

Contact Suppression

17% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Neutral park · air suppressing HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 2.57 ERA · 31% K

2

4

1

1

7

1

4

3

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs MIA—

Tonight's Park

HR

-3%

Hits

+4%

2B

-3%

3B

-8%

K

-11%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

73°

Wind

5 80°

Rain

100%

HR Adj

-14%

K Adj

-4%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 11:47 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.