Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Will Warren
New York Yankees · New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.83 · WHIP 1.59 · K 19% · 11 starts
WILL WARREN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
WILL
WARREN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam32%94 mph
Sinker26%93 mph
Changeup18%87 mph
Sweeper15%84 mph
Curveball9%82 mph
Matchup
VS CHC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
25
VS
ERA
4.83
WHIP
1.59
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .480 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 54% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.6
K/GM
3.9
IP/GM
6.05
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 54% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.05 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
11 184°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:39 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.