Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
WILLI CASTRO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
WILLI
CASTRO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
34
Grade F
Matchup
VS — · —
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
34
VS
Rookie / call-up — no 2026 MLB starts logged yet. Season ERA / WHIP / K% will populate after this pitcher's next outing.
Statcast Matchup
No recent Statcast on file for this pitcher yet.
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.9 avg EV · 7.6% barrel · 33% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Pitcher—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
7 247°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:07 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game