Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
WILLI CASTRO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
WILLI
CASTRO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
56
Grade C
Matchup
VS Cade Povich · LHP
87.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
75
VS
ERA
4.45
WHIP
1.41
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.5 | 90.7 |
| Barrel% | 16% | 23% |
| Hard Hit% | 40% | 38% |
| xwOBA | .400 | .387 |
| xSLG | .590 | .576 |
| Whiff% | 26% | 15% |
| Chase% | 35% | 25% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.5 avg EV · 16.4% barrel · 40% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Povich—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
3 242°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:39 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game