Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
WILLSON CONTRERAS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
WILLSON
CONTRERAS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
63
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Mason Englert · RHP
85.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
78
VS
ERA
2.93
WHIP
1.34
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 91.7 | 85.3 |
| Barrel% | 19% | 21% |
| Hard Hit% | 54% | 29% |
| xwOBA | .487 | .341 |
| xSLG | .760 | .536 |
| Whiff% | 28% | 35% |
| Chase% | 34% | 33% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
91.7 avg EV · 18.5% barrel · 54% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Englert0
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
4 261°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:46 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game