Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Wilyer Abreu
Boston Red Sox · Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
MG Score
45
D
Tonight's Matchup
53
Matchup
Neutral matchup
vs Shane Baz · RHP · 90.3 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
4.01
WHIP
1.22
K%
22%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
88.1
96.5
Barrel%
12.8%
11.1%
Hard Hit%
36%
56%
xwOBA
.386
.358
xSLG
.591
.475
Whiff%
23%
21%
Chase%
35%
33%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Shane Baz: 9 PA · Low sample
AB
8
AVG
.250
OPS
.583
HR
0
H
2
K
4
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
88.1
Barrel%
12.8%
Hard Hit%
36%
Sweet Spot%
37%
xwOBA
0.386
xSLG
0.591
Recent Games
Last 5
80%
4/5 games
Last 10
70%
7/10 games
Last 20
65%
13/20 games
Last 30
65%
15/23 games
AVG
.238
OBP
.289
SLG
.357
OPS
.646
HR
0
RBI
5
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Atlanta Braves | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Atlanta Braves | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5/26 | Atlanta Braves | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Minnesota Twins | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Minnesota Twins | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Minnesota Twins | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Kansas City Royals | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Wilyer Abreu
Boston Red Sox · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
89.5 mph
Avg LA
16.8°
Hard-hit %
40%
Barrel %
17%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
3Triple
0Double
6Single
27Out
64Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.