Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
YAINER DIAZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
YAINER
DIAZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
60
Grade C
Matchup
VS Jacob deGrom · RHP
92.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
84
VS
ERA
3.49
WHIP
1.11
K%
29%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.7 | 91.7 |
| Barrel% | 14% | 16% |
| Hard Hit% | 43% | 58% |
| xwOBA | .459 | .393 |
| xSLG | .695 | .571 |
| Whiff% | 16% | 24% |
| Chase% | 47% | 39% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.7 avg EV · 13.7% barrel · 43% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs deGrom1
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
96°
Wind
9 241°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+21%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:56 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game