Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
YAINER DIAZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
YAINER
DIAZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
43
Grade D
Matchup
VS Casey Mize · RHP
89.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
1
VS
ERA
1.80
WHIP
0.76
K%
26%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 78.5 | 81.2 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 4% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 15% |
| xwOBA | .348 | .246 |
| xSLG | .420 | .331 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 31% |
| Chase% | 33% | 24% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
78.5 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Mize—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
6 129°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-10%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:10 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game