Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
YORDAN ALVAREZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
YORDAN
ALVAREZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
73
Grade B
Matchup
VS Anthony Kay · LHP
90.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
77
VS
ERA
3.63
WHIP
1.21
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 93.7 | 85.6 |
| Barrel% | 23% | 12% |
| Hard Hit% | 53% | 40% |
| xwOBA | .394 | .354 |
| xSLG | .576 | .526 |
| Whiff% | 18% | 22% |
| Chase% | 30% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
93.7 avg EV · 23.3% barrel · 53% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Kay0
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
91°
Wind
10 126°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+3%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:14 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game