Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
YORDAN ALVAREZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
YORDAN
ALVAREZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
85
Grade A-
Matchup
VS Dean Kremer · RHP
87.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
100
VS
ERA
4.09
WHIP
1.00
K%
28%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 95.5 | 90.8 |
| Barrel% | 27% | 19% |
| Hard Hit% | 52% | 38% |
| xwOBA | .513 | .465 |
| xSLG | .868 | .806 |
| Whiff% | 18% | 31% |
| Chase% | 24% | 26% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
95.5 avg EV · 27.4% barrel · 52% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Kremer0
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
89°
Wind
10 166°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-4%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game