Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Yordan Alvarez
Houston Astros · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros
MG Score
90
A+
Tonight's Matchup
100
Matchup
Smash spot
vs Bubba Chandler · RHP · 94.8 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
4.70
WHIP
1.57
K%
24%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
97.1
90.3
Barrel%
36.2%
17.6%
Hard Hit%
62%
41%
xwOBA
.676
.432
xSLG
1.140
.641
Whiff%
21%
18%
Chase%
26%
36%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Bubba Chandler.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
97.1
Barrel%
36.2%
Hard Hit%
62%
Sweet Spot%
53%
xwOBA
0.676
xSLG
1.140
Recent Games
Last 5
40%
2/5 games
Last 10
50%
5/10 games
Last 20
55%
11/20 games
Last 30
57%
13/23 games
AVG
.257
OBP
.395
SLG
.714
OPS
1.110
HR
5
RBI
8
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Milwaukee Brewers | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Milwaukee Brewers | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Texas Rangers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Texas Rangers | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Texas Rangers | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Texas Rangers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Chicago Cubs | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Chicago Cubs | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Minnesota Twins | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Yordan Alvarez
Houston Astros · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
95.2 mph
Avg LA
16.0°
Hard-hit %
56%
Barrel %
29%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
10Triple
0Double
7Single
21Out
62Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 5/31/2026
Games: 8
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
A+Performance Score
87Exit Velo
101.3 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
66.7%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
25.3%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.899
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
50.0%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: Exit Velo, Hard Hit%
Areas for Improvement: Chase%
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
115.1 mph
Launch Angle
23.8°
xBA
0.554
xSLG
1.777
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
27.8%
Fly Ball%
44.4%
Line Drive%
22.2%
Pop Up%
5.6%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.