Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Zac Thornton
New York Mets · San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.77 · WHIP 1.15 · K 18% · 10 starts
ZAC THORNTON
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
ZAC
THORNTON
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Cutter33%88 mph
4-Seam25%92 mph
Sweeper16%80 mph
Sinker9%92 mph
Slider7%84 mph
Curveball6%76 mph
Changeup5%85 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
52
VS
ERA
2.77
WHIP
1.15
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .376 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
4.6
IP/GM
3.91
ERA
1.30
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.91 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
10 358°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+10%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.