ZAC THORNTON

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

ZAC

THORNTON

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Pitch-mix data not available.

Matchup

VS MIL LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

66

Good

projected lineup

VS

ERA

2.60

WHIP

0.92

K%

22%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	25%	25%
SwStr%	13.1%	11%
Chase%	38%	28%
xwOBA-a	.317	.315
Barrel%-a	6%	8%
HardHit%-a	30%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

5.0

K/GM

5.8

IP/GM

2.60

ERA

0.92

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

22% season K rate

Contact Suppression

6% barrel · 30% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-friendly park

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 3 starts

0 of 3 starts over

Last 5: 2.60 ERA · 22% K

3

7

5

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs MIL—

Tonight's Park

HR

+8%

Hits

-6%

2B

-17%

3B

-9%

K

+11%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

72°

Wind

0

Rain

0%

HR Adj

0%

K Adj

0%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 3:50 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.