Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Zach McKinstry
Detroit Tigers · Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays · in lineup
MG Score
25
F
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
82.2
Barrel%
5.5%
Hard Hit%
20%
Sweet Spot%
29%
xwOBA
0.227
xSLG
0.297
Recent Games
Last 5
0%
0/5 games
Last 10
20%
2/10 games
Last 20
30%
6/20 games
Last 30
38%
10/26 games
AVG
.120
OBP
.290
SLG
.120
OPS
.410
HR
0
RBI
4
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Chicago White Sox | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Chicago White Sox | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Chicago White Sox | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Los Angeles Angels | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Los Angeles Angels | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Los Angeles Angels | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Baltimore Orioles | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/21 | Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Zach McKinstry
Detroit Tigers · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
83.2 mph
Avg LA
13.1°
Hard-hit %
19%
Barrel %
9%
Outcomes (70 balls)
Home Run
1Triple
0Double
3Single
12Out
54Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/22/2026 - 5/31/2026
Games: 8
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
FPerformance Score
13Exit Velo
83.6 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
27.8%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
22.4%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.134
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
16.7%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: No standout metrics
Areas for Improvement: Exit Velo, xwOBA
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
106.0 mph
Launch Angle
13.7°
xBA
0.123
xSLG
0.165
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
44.4%
Fly Ball%
38.9%
Line Drive%
5.6%
Pop Up%
11.1%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.