Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ZACK GELOF
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ZACK
GELOF
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
43
Grade D
Matchup
VS Drew Rasmussen · RHP
93.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
36
VS
ERA
2.79
WHIP
0.97
K%
26%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 94.5 | 88.8 |
| Barrel% | 40% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 40% | 29% |
| xwOBA | .829 | .314 |
| xSLG | 1.474 | .435 |
| Whiff% | 40% | 28% |
| Chase% | 33% | 36% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
94.5 avg EV · 40.0% barrel · 40% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Rasmussen0
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
+3%
2B
+5%
3B
0%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
6 150°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:23 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game