Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Zack Wheeler
Philadelphia Phillies · Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.35 · WHIP 0.91 · K 32% · 10 starts
ZACK WHEELER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
ZACK
WHEELER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam31%96 mph
Splitter17%88 mph
Sweeper17%81 mph
Sinker15%95 mph
Cutter12%91 mph
Curveball9%80 mph
Matchup
VS DET LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.35
WHIP
0.91
K%
32%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 33% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 15.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .291 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 4% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 34% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
7.6
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
2.73
ERA
1.03
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
32% season K rate
Contact Suppression
4% barrel · 34% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 2.73 ERA · 37% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs DET—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
7 71°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.