Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Zebby Matthews
Minnesota Twins · Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.57 · WHIP 1.22 · K 20% · 11 starts
ZEBBY MATTHEWS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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ZEBBY
MATTHEWS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam34%95 mph
Slider22%87 mph
Cutter15%90 mph
Curveball12%80 mph
Changeup10%86 mph
Sinker7%95 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.57
WHIP
1.22
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .420 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 20% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
6.1
IP/GM
3.82
ERA
1.27
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
20% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.82 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
87°
Wind
6 255°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:10 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.