Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Zebby Matthews
Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.60 · WHIP 1.31 · K 21% · 11 starts
ZEBBY MATTHEWS
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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ZEBBY
MATTHEWS
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam35%95 mph
Slider26%87 mph
Changeup12%88 mph
Curveball11%81 mph
Cutter9%91 mph
Sinker7%95 mph
Matchup
VS CHW LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.60
WHIP
1.31
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .379 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 54% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
6.2
IP/GM
2.90
ERA
1.13
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 54% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.90 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHW—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
12 90°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+10%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:43 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.