PrizePicks & Underdog Edges: picks that beat the payout | Mongoose Bets
PrizePicks & Underdog Edges
6 beat 54.2%Pick'em squares the sportsbooks say hit more often than the payout needs. Every square is priced against the no-vig consensus of the books on the same player and stat.
6 NFL squares beat the 54.2% break-even right now. Members see all of them.
How this works and what each entry needs
For every square we take each sportsbook's over and under price on the same player and stat, remove the book's cut, and use the median: the market's fair chance. When fewer than three books post the app's exact line we move the nearest market line to it using our sim's spread of outcomes for that player, and mark the square estimated. Whole-number lines are priced with the push taken out, because the apps void a pick that lands exactly on the line.
A square is worth playing when its fair chance beats what the entry needs per pick:
| PrizePicks entry | Needs per pick |
|---|---|
| 6-pick Flex | 54.2% |
| 5-pick Flex | 54.3% |
| 6-pick Power | 54.7% |
| 5-pick Power | 54.9% |
| 3-pick Power | 55.0% |
| 4-pick Power | 56.2% |
| 2-pick Power | 57.7% |
From PrizePicks' published payouts for standard picks; demons and goblins pay differently and are not shown. Underdog's standard payouts are similar but change from time to time, so check the multiplier the app shows. Squares at 57.7% or better beat every entry. Fair chances are estimates from the market, not guarantees, and entries need several picks to hit.