MLB Player Research — Projections, Props, Matchups & Statcast | Mongoose Bets

Every batter in a confirmed lineup is simulated plate appearance by plate appearance across 2,500 game replays. The projections below aren't point estimates pulled from season averages — they're means and probability distributions from simulations that respect handedness, recent form, the specific opposing pitcher, park factors, weather, and tonight's umpire. That means a .270 hitter doesn't always project at .270: against a reverse-platoon lefty specialist in Fenway in a 15 mph wind blowing out, the same hitter might project at .305 with an elevated HR rate.

What goes into each projection

• Platoon splits — vs-LHP and vs-RHP rates for HR, 1B, 2B, 3B, K, BB. Platoon matters more than overall rate when the opposing starter is handedness-extreme.
• Recent form — last-14-day rates blended with season rates, with Bayesian regression to true talent for small samples.
• Batter-vs-pitcher history — career BvP splits when sample is meaningful (≥20 PA), weighted into the matchup probabilities.
• Park factors — per-event HR, 1B, 2B, 3B multipliers for tonight's ballpark. Coors inflates hits and runs ~12%; Oracle Park suppresses HR ~15%.
• Weather — wind direction and speed (carry effect on fly balls), temperature (ball travel distance), humidity.
• Umpire tendency — strike zone size and consistency affect K% and BB%; see /umpires for today's plate umps.
• Bullpen exposure — projected PAs against the opposing bullpen vs the starter, and the platoon matchups those relievers will be deployed into.

Reading the projection board

Each row shows the batter, handedness, lineup spot, and mean projections for hits, home runs, RBI, total bases, and fantasy points. Clicking a player opens their full probability distribution — the odds of 1+ hit, 2+ hits, 1+ HR, 2+ TB, and so on — which is what actually matters for prop betting. The "All Columns" toggle exposes K%, BB%, and the sim-derived fair odds at each prop threshold so you can compare directly against sportsbook lines.