Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ANDREW KNIZNER
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ANDREW
KNIZNER
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Kyle Freeland · LHP
87.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
8
VS
ERA
5.58
WHIP
1.32
K%
20%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 81.5 | 86.0 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 14% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 38% |
| xwOBA | .005 | .332 |
| xSLG | .006 | .492 |
| Whiff% | 50% | 23% |
| Chase% | 0% | 34% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
81.5 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Freeland0
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
62°
Wind
11 268°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
-1%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:48 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game