CLAY HOLMES

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

CLAY

HOLMES

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Sinker41%93 mph

Matchup

VS STL LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

44

Bad

projected lineup

VS

ERA

2.86

WHIP

1.16

K%

20%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	11%	25%
SwStr%	5.7%	11%
Chase%	44%	28%
xwOBA-a	.449	.315
Barrel%-a	13%	8%
HardHit%-a	53%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

5.4

K/GM

5.3

IP/GM

3.71

ERA

1.31

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

20% season K rate

Contact Suppression

13% barrel · 53% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-suppressing park · air suppressing HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 3.71 ERA · 24% K

5

4

3

4

3

6

6

6

8

1

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs STL—

Tonight's Park

HR

-8%

Hits

-3%

2B

-15%

3B

+16%

K

+3%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

77°

Wind

9 88°

Rain

80%

HR Adj

-5%

K Adj

0%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 11:46 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.