Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Jackson Jobe
Detroit Tigers · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.89 · WHIP 1.18 · K 25% · 9 starts
JACKSON JOBE
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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JACKSON
JOBE
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam28%97 mph
Slider26%90 mph
Sinker19%96 mph
Curveball14%86 mph
Changeup10%87 mph
Matchup
VS PIT LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.89
WHIP
1.18
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 36% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .349 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 30% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.8
K/GM
4.7
IP/GM
3.86
ERA
0.99
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 30% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 9 starts
0 of 9 starts over
Last 5: 3.86 ERA · 31% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PIT—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
73°
Wind
7 15°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.