Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JHONNY PEREDA
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JHONNY
PEREDA
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
58
Grade C
Matchup
VS Max Fried · LHP
89.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
39
VS
ERA
3.38
WHIP
1.09
K%
27%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.6 | 85.2 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 5% |
| Hard Hit% | 50% | 29% |
| xwOBA | .106 | .243 |
| xSLG | .127 | .316 |
| Whiff% | 0% | 24% |
| Chase% | 29% | 26% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.6 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Fried—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
13 297°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game