Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Matthew Boyd
Chicago Cubs · Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.99 · WHIP 1.18 · K 15% · 11 starts
MATTHEW BOYD
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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MATTHEW
BOYD
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam41%93 mph
Changeup34%79 mph
Slider11%84 mph
Curveball11%73 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.99
WHIP
1.18
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .335 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
5.9
IP/GM
3.64
ERA
1.18
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.64 ERA · 17% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
66°
Wind
6 70°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.