Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Matthew Boyd
Chicago Cubs · Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.02 · WHIP 1.23 · K 16% · 11 starts
MATTHEW BOYD
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MATTHEW
BOYD
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam40%93 mph
Changeup27%78 mph
Slider18%82 mph
Curveball15%73 mph
Matchup
VS KC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.02
WHIP
1.23
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 12% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .348 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 27% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.8
K/GM
6.7
IP/GM
2.14
ERA
1.13
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 27% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.14 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs KC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
88°
Wind
15 209°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:56 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.