MATTHEW BOYD

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

MATTHEW

BOYD

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam47%93 mph

Matchup

VS SD LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

62

Average

projected lineup

VS

ERA

3.60

WHIP

1.28

K%

27%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	30%	25%
SwStr%	15.8%	11%
Chase%	28%	28%
xwOBA-a	.308	.315
Barrel%-a	15%	8%
HardHit%-a	46%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

5.6

K/GM

5.0

IP/GM

3.60

ERA

1.28

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

27% season K rate

Contact Suppression

15% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 5 starts

0 of 5 starts over

Last 5: 3.60 ERA · 27% K

10

5

4

5

4

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs SD—

Tonight's Park

HR

-8%

Hits

-3%

2B

-15%

3B

+16%

K

+3%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

87°

Wind

15 222°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+25%

K Adj

-3%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 9:13 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.