Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians
2026-04-21 · 06:10 PM ET · Progressive Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on 2026-04-21. Predicted final score: Houston Astros 5.23, Cleveland Guardians 6.79. Model win probability: Cleveland Guardians 63%, Houston Astros 37%. Projected total runs: 12.03.
Houston Astros
5.2
Predicted runs
37% to win
Cleveland Guardians
6.8
Predicted runs
63% to win
Projected total: 12.0 runs
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Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.