Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians
2026-04-22 · Progressive Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on 2026-04-22. Predicted final score: Houston Astros 4.41, Cleveland Guardians 5.21. Model win probability: Cleveland Guardians 58%, Houston Astros 42%. Projected total runs: 9.61.
Houston Astros
4.4
Predicted runs
42% to win
Cleveland Guardians
5.2
Predicted runs
58% to win
Projected total: 9.6 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.